How will climate change affect Scotland?
Climate Change Trends across Scotland
The Climate Change Trends Online Tool is the online version of the printed handbook published by SNIFFER in May 2006 and available to download as a pdf from the SNIFFER Website. This web resource is identical in content to the printed edition, but offers greater flexibility of use and access to larger format maps and images. The climate trends examined in this handbook provide benchmarks against which we can measure future change. They will be of value to users across a wide range of sectors and disciplines who are developing strategies to prepare for adapt to the impacts of a changing climate in Scotland. The online tool can be accessed here.
Projections for Scotland
The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) give climate information for the UK up to the end of this century. UKCP09 is the fifth generation of climate information for the UK, and is the most comprehensive package produced to date. Projections of future changes to our climate are provided, based on simulations from climate models. Projections for Scotland are included as part of these projections, however there is no Scotland-wide summary from the UKCP09 model. There is averaging over three Scottish ‘administrative' districts, which are based on the Met Office ‘climate regions'.
SCCIP is currently preparing a compendium of maps, facts and figures for Scotland derived from the projections, which will be available on this website in due course.
UKCIP02
The following links provide detailed information and figures on the key Climate Projections for Scotland, taken from the following report: ‘Business Risks of Climate Change to Public Sector Organisations in Scotland, SNIFFER 2005 (AEA Technology). These projections are based on the UKCIP02 Scenarios (for the conservative medium-low emissions scenario with atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 422 ppm in the 2020s, 489 ppm in the 2050s and 562 ppm in the 2080s):
Read more about this research by following these links to the executive summary and the full research report.
Summary of Key Impacts from Climate Change for Scotland
(source: The Business Risks of Climate Change to Public Sector Organisations in Scotland, SNIFFER 2005):
- Impacts of sea level rise, erosion, the loss of land and coastal wetlands, and need for coastal protection.
- Effects on agriculture and forestry. Effects on energy use (including heating and cooling).
- Effects to human health from changes in cold related and heat related effects.
- Effects to human health from the disease burden (and other secondary effects).
- Effects on water resources, water supply and water quality. Changes to tourism products and destinations.
- Effects on ecosystems (loss of bio-diversity and physical and chemical changes).
- Impacts from flooding. Impacts from storm damage and extreme weather (including costs to infrastructure).
- Impacts from major events (loss of gulf stream, collapse of West-Antarctic ice sheet).
Impacts of climate change on forestry on Scotland
(source: Impacts of Climate Change on forestry in Scotland - a synopsis of spatial modelling research, Research Note, Forest Research, Forestry Commission Scotland 2008)
The shape and look of Scotland's forests will have to change if they themselves are to escape the worst effects of climate change, according to work commissioned by Forestry Commission Scotland.
A Forest Research report published in January highlights the important role Scotland's forests have to play in the national effort to tackle climate change and outlines steps that the forestry sector may need to take to lessen the impact of warmer, drier summers and milder, wetter, windier winters. Read more...
